As the September 29 deadline for the US consultation on “derivative” tariffs passes, European industry is anxiously looking to what comes next. The overwhelming expectation is an expanded list of targeted goods, a move that will deepen the transatlantic trade crisis and force the EU to make critical decisions about its response.
The consultation period was viewed with deep skepticism in Brussels. Industry groups have been unequivocal in their belief that the process was designed “to expand, not to cut” the list of 407 product categories already subject to duties. The post-deadline phase is therefore anticipated to bring more bad news.
The immediate future will likely involve damage assessment. Companies across the continent will be scrambling to see if their products—be they window frames, motorcycles, or machinery—are on the new list. The UK government, which has already been seeking clarification, will be under immense pressure to provide guidance to its businesses.
The strategic future will be defined by the EU’s reaction. The calls for a “strong new trade measure” from bodies like Eurofer will intensify. The debate in Brussels will likely shift from how to appeal to Washington to how to build effective defenses against its policies. This could involve retaliatory tariffs or new subsidy schemes to support affected industries.
Beyond this deadline lies a period of heightened tension and economic uncertainty. The US decision will set the tone for transatlantic trade relations for the foreseeable future, and all signs point to a more confrontational and turbulent chapter ahead for a European industrial sector already on edge.